US International Law by the UN Security

US President Donald Trump is expected
to refuse to certify the deal and initiate stronger moves against Iran. Formal
negotiations toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear
program began with the adoption of the Joint Plan of Action, an interim
agreement signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries i.e. China, France,
Russia, The United Kingdom and The United States in November 2013. The deal was
finalised in 2015 and it was called The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The four other permanent members of
the UN Security Council — China, France, Russia and the UK — joined Germany and
the EU in signing the deal with Iran. The process was endorsed into International
Law by the UN Security Council. Under the agreement, Iran agreed to eliminate
its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched
uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas
centrifuges for 13 years. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water
facilities for the same period. To monitor and verify Iran’s compliance with
the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular
access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. The agreement provides that in return
for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from the
U.S., European Union, and United Nations Security Council nuclear-related
economic sanctions.

The Impacts

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A)  Impact on America and The World as a Whole

If in April, US President Donald
Trump, refuses to certify Iran’s compliance of terms of the Nuclear Agreement
reached with Iran jointly by Russia, EU and America during Obama Presidency.
America re-imposes sanctions on Iran. Oil prices rise to more than $80 a
barrel. As a result, what happens next is
likely to be complicated, messy and potentially explosive.

As the oil price per barrel will increase it
will have an inverse effect on the US Dollar value. The US imports around 18.5
million barrels of oil per day. It is the largest importer of oil in the world.
The more the price of oil rises the more the value for the Dollar will
depreciate. Because of which there will be an inflation in the prices of goods
and services in the US. This will have a negative impact on the supply of oil
in the US as the cost of imports will rise. Because of which US will have to
look for other alternatives such as Shale Oil or Sugarcane Ethanol to meet
their demand.

 

If Iran would return to its past levels of uranium enrichment, or
even greater ones as it had threatened to do in the past. Iran would have
enough firepower to take America to war. And Iran is a regime that once proclaimed,
“Death to America” freely and in the open. This would lead to a potential world
war as Iran would take up arms against America. The United States will soon
need to devise a strategy to prevent Tehran from pursuing a much larger
enrichment capacity than the one it temporarily foreswore. To do so, the United
States will need cooperation from the other P5+1 countries.

It would deepen already dangerous fissures within the NATO
alliance. Cracking the alliance is Russia’s number one strategic priority;
setting the allies to fighting amongst themselves about Iran would be a big win
for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It would also lead to the appreciation of
the Rubel in Russia as Russia has oil of its own and it can start exporting oil
to America.

If America and Iran go to war there will be a massive impact on
the American economy. Many American banks will fail and there will be an
economic crisis just like the great depression. The dollar value will drop and
America being a debt economy will get into further debts. It will lead to large
amount of unemployment in the US and America will be in a crisis. And it might
probably not get to rebuild itself back to its old prosperous economy.

B)
Impact on China

China imports 11 million barrels of oil per
day. As a result, the cost of imports will increase and the balance of trade
will be negative. Cost of transport will gradually increase. China was critical to the accomplishment of this landmark initiative,
which has implications for non-proliferation and international security.
Additionally, as the world’s second largest economy and the largest export
destination of Iranian oil, China serves as a critical lifeline to the Iranian
economy and, thus, the stability of the Iranian regime. Beijing’s objection
would effectively undermine international efforts to sanction or isolate
Tehran.

China may limit Security Council resolutions to preserve its narrow
strategic and economic interests. Every state may be expected to pursue its
self-interests. In terms of economic sanctions that directly impact China’s
economy, Security Council resolutions may ultimately serve a limited co-ordinating
role for more effective and comprehensive national level measures.

C) Impact on UAE

The
UAE is the major oil producer in the world. Prior to the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action, Iran’s economic relations with the UAE had been a mutually
beneficial. The UAE had been Iran’s largest non-oil trading partner and served
as Iran’s eighth largest export market in 2013. Despite a 30 percent reduction
in exports to Iran in 2012 as part of the sanctions agreement, the UAE was
still Iran’s fourth largest trading partner and held 80 percent of GCC trade with Iran.

 

With the sanctions lifted, the UAE will be unrestricted
in pursuing expansive mutually beneficial trade agreements. Not to mention,
Dubai specifically has the potential to make huge profits as the commercial
centre for new business ventures in Iran, adding to its role as the centre of
Middle Eastern commerce. Commercially, the UAE has plenty to gain from the
sanctions deal.

D) Impact
in India

India imports 4 billion barrels of oil per
day. With a re-sanction the Governments expenditure on crude oil will increase
as the price of oil increases even more. The Indian market will be in a
volatile state and to meet with the everyday consumption levels there will be
an increase in the crime rates. If Iran and America go to war India will be
affected as there will be a direct impact on the oil prices of the world. Since
the value of the US Dollar will drop, the oil prices in the world will
increase. This will lead to higher amount of spending in India as the demand
for oil will always be constant for our day to day consumption in the transport
and machinery sectors. India is one of the top importers of oil in the world as
it has a large demography to cater to.

Conclusion

I feel that if the Agreement between the US and
Iran is broken, it will lead to a World War in which many lives will be lost.
So, to avoid such disasters we must look out for other alternatives as a source
of energy. Shale oil is one such alternative but it is mainly used for machinery.
Ethanol, a fuel product from Sugarcane fermentation, is a new, clean,
affordable and low-carbon biofuel that has emerged as a leading renewable fuel
for the transportation sector. New alternatives being introduced in the markets
will lead to the formation of new oil committees. This will probably lead to
the price of oil dropping if the alternatives have the same properties as the
crude oil from Iran. If Trump re-sanctions the deal it will greatly affect the
American economy and America will go back to being in a crisis like it did back
in 1929.